Pharmaceutical Company
Case Study: Forecast Market Potential
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Pharmaceutical Company

Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Research to Inform a Forecast

Problem

Estimation of the potential of an early pipeline product to determine the indications that offered the highest potential commercial value

  • Explore unmet needs in the treatment of various types of metastatic breast cancer in the context of a rapidly changing treatment environment
  • Determine drivers and barriers to the adoption of a new treatment
  • Understand reactions to multiple TPPs and willingness to incorporate the therapies into treatment algorithms
  • Identify and explore desired endpoints and the trade-offs physicians make between potential trial endpoints
  • Quantify potential uptake of multiple TPPs in specific patient groups

Our Recommended Approach

  • Qualitative and quantitative research conducted simultaneously (given timeline restrictions) in the US, EU5 and Japan
  • Qualitatively, a mix of in-person and telephone interviews exploring:
    • Physician awareness and perceptions of new breast cancer treatments
    • How physicians currently treat ER+/PR+, HER2+ and Triple Negative breast cancer and the anticipated treatment algorithms for these patients in 2015
    • Perceptions of the TPPs
  • Quantitatively, a 60-minute Internet survey captured:
    • Market sizing data
    • Several self-stated allocations
    • Current treatment for each indication
    • Anticipated treatment in 2015
    • Anticipated treatment with the introduction of a new product
    • Trade-offs in clinical trial endpoints and relative importance of those endpoints through a partial profile exercise
    • Data points required to run deal-breaker analysis to understand at what level a product would not be considered

Results

  • The data from this study, combined with other intelligence, aided the client in determining which indications to pursue and helped inform clinical trial design
  • Estimate of future-market patient share for the TPPs
  • Understanding of how the clinical trial design may impact uptake
  • Understanding of the trade-offs physicians make between key clinical trial endpoints
  • Qualitative and quantitative explanation of the rationale for the patient shares and trade-offs